Skip to Content

Research Group

A collaborative effort to advance the understanding of macroeconomic dynamics through rigorous data analysis and economic theory.

4

Joint Projects

6

Collaborative Years

Macro & Political Economy

Academic Focus

June 2026

Latest Paper

Core Members

Collaboration History

Formation

Met at the University of Copenhagen. Established a collaborative workflow for Microeconomics and Mathematical Analysis.

Exchange Rate Dynamics

First joint project, written with Sheng during our bachelor's. Analysis of Danish inflation and relative exchange rates.

ECB Taylor Rules

The first seminar paper all three of us wrote together. GMM estimation of asymmetric policy responses in the euro area.

Does GenAI Help Those Who Need It Most?

Research proposal on the heterogeneous effects of generative AI across socioeconomic lines in Danish upper-secondary schools.

Globalization and the Welfare State

Seminar paper submitted June 2026. Panel data analysis of 32 OECD countries 1980–2023; rolling regressions uncover a structural break at 2008.

Master's Thesis

Monetary Policy & Economic Relations. Starts 20 August 2026, focusing on monetary policy in a post-COVID world.

Joint output

Seminar paper 2026

Globalization and the Welfare State

Economics of the Welfare State, University of Copenhagen. Supervisor: Amalie Sofie Jensen.

My role: Method and identification, residual diagnostics, rolling regressions, sub-period analysis, choice of standard errors and reverse causality.

Research proposal 2026

Does GenAI Help Those Who Need It Most?

AI for Humanity, University of Copenhagen. Heterogeneous effects of generative AI in Danish upper-secondary schools.

Grade 10
Seminar paper 2024

One Rule to Rule Them All?

ECB monetary policy and asymmetric effects across the euro area. Supervisor: Michael Bergman.

Grade 10
Master's thesis 2026–27

Monetary Policy & Economic Relations

Starts 20 August 2026. Empirical analysis of monetary policy in a post-COVID world.

Methodology & Workflow

Data Engineering

Automated Python pipelines ensure reproducibility. We never clean data manually.

Econometrics

Rigorous identification in Stata. From simple OLS to GMM and structural VAR models.

Dissemination

LaTeX for academic papers, Astro for interactive web dashboards. Clarity is king.

Thesis Tracker

Monetary Policy & Economic Relations

Starts 20 August 2026 · expected submission January 2027

Not yet started Planned phases
  1. 1
    Literature Review Aug–Sep 2026
  2. 2
    Data Collection Sep–Oct 2026
  3. 3
    Model Validation Oct–Nov 2026
  4. 4
    Drafting Nov 2026–Jan 2027

Data Scale

32 countries OECD panel, 1980–2023

CPDS, KOF, OECD and the World Bank harmonised into one panel. N = 996 in the fully specified models. Globalization and the Welfare State.

1999–2024 Quarterly, euro area

Eurostat, OECD Economic Outlook and the ECB Statistical Data Warehouse. ECB Taylor Rules.

20,000+ Data points, high-frequency financial data

Structured and processed for SVAR estimation. Global Financial Cycle (bachelor's thesis).

Method coverage

How many of the four joint works use each method family. The axis runs 0 to 4.

What the group actually does

Five method families across four joint works, counted rather than self-rated.

  • Panel data & FE — the welfare state seminar.
  • Time series / VAR — the ECB project and the thesis.
  • IV & GMM — the ECB project.
  • Robustness & diagnostics — the ECB project and the welfare seminar.
  • Survey & ML — the GenAI proposal.

The Knowledge Bank

Gabaix, X. & Maggiori, M. (2015). International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics. QJE.

Rey, H. (2015). Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence. NBER.

Miranda-Agrippino, S. & Rey, H. (2020). U.S. Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle. RES.

Bruno, V. & Shin, H. S. (2015). Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity. RES.

Rodrik, D. (1998). Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments? JPE.

Esping-Andersen, G. (1990). The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism. Princeton University Press.

Yay, G. G. & Aksoy, T. (2018). Globalization and the welfare state. Quality & Quantity.

Agersnap, O., Jensen, A. & Kleven, H. (2020). The Welfare Magnet Hypothesis. AER: Insights.

Gallery

The Stack 2.0

Stata

reghdfeivreg2gmmestout

Python

pandasnumpyscipymatplotlib

LaTeX

tikzbeamerbiblatexpgfplots

DevOps

gitgithub-actionsdockerduckdb

Open Science Pledge

We believe in transparency. All data cleaning is scripted rather than manual, so a dataset can be rebuilt from its sources. The welfare state seminar goes first: the whole pipeline is public on GitHub, with raw data, a Makefile, a Docker image and tests. The others will follow as they are prepared.

Scripted Cleaning
Version Control

Network & Affiliation

  • University of Copenhagen

    Department of Economics (ØI)

Academic Supervision

Research Log

Jun 2026

Rolling regressions & Chow test

Estimating the globalization coefficient over 10-year windows exposed parameter instability; a Chow test confirmed a structural break at 2008 for all four KOF indices.

Apr 2026

OECD panel assembled

Harmonised CPDS, KOF, OECD and World Bank sources into a single panel covering 32 countries, 1980–2023.

Feb 2025

Automating exchange rate data

Scripted the retrieval and harmonisation of exchange rate and price index series from Statistics Denmark, so the dataset can be rebuilt from scratch.

Jan 2025

DuckDB in the workflow

Migrated larger datasets from CSV to DuckDB/Parquet for faster queries during the exploratory phase.

Dec 2024

GMM estimation

Two-step GMM with lagged instruments implemented in Stata for the ECB project's Taylor rules.

rolling_windows.py
import pandas as pd
from linearmodels.panel import PanelOLS

# 1. Balanced panel: 32 OECD countries, 1980–2023
panel = df.set_index(["country", "year"])
spec = "sstran ~ 1 + KOFGI_lag1 + ln_gdppc_lag1 + inflation_lag1" \
       " + deficit_lag1 + debt_lag1 + ln_pop_lag1 + dep_ratio_lag1" \
       " + EntityEffects + TimeEffects"

# 2. Rolling 10-year windows: each point is a separate estimation
for end in range(1989, 2024):
    years = range(end - 9, end + 1)
    window = panel.loc[panel.index.get_level_values("year").isin(years)]
    fit = PanelOLS.from_formula(spec, window).fit(
        cov_type="clustered", cluster_entity=True
    )
    print(end, fit.params["KOFGI_lag1"], fit.std_errors["KOFGI_lag1"])
                     
Code Behind the Numbers Reproducible & Robust

Academic Curriculum (M.Sc. Econ)

Seminar
10

Seminar – Economics of the Welfare State

Economics of the welfare state. Completed with the seminar paper behind this project.

7.5 ECTS
10

Advanced Macroeconomics – Structural VAR

Identification, impulse responses and robustness in structural VAR models.

7.5 ECTS
10

Advanced Macroeconomics – Business Cycles

Business cycle theory, DSGE models and macroeconomic fluctuations.

7.5 ECTS
10

Applied Economic Modelling

Calibration, SAM, shocks and baseline checks. Tool: GAMS.