Technical Frameworks
Model Library
Understanding the theory behind the buttons is what separates a good economist from a data entry clerk. Here is a review of the models I work with.
SYSTEM STATUS: OPERATIONAL
THE SIGNAL ROOM
REAL-TIME MACROECONOMIC CONTROL CENTER
MONETARY POLICY
Taylor Rule Deviation
INFLATION
HICP Inflation Rate (YoY)
SYSTEM TRANSMISSION
SVAR (Structural Vector Autoregression)
Used to identify structural shocks in macroeconomic time series.
B_0 y_t = c + B_1 y_{t-1} + ... + B_p y_{t-p} + \epsilon_t Used in bachelor's project to isolate US monetary policy shocks via 'Sign Restrictions'.
DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium)
Micro-founded macro models used to simulate economic policies.
E_t \sum_{j=0}^{\infty} \beta^j U(c_{t+j}, l_{t+j}) Experience with Dynare and calibration of neoclassical growth models.
Taylor Rules
A monetary reaction function determining the optimal interest rate based on inflation and output gap.
i_t = r^* + \pi_t + \alpha_\pi(\pi_t - \pi^*) + \alpha_y(y_t) Interactive simulator built with React & Chart.js.
Try LiveCGE (Computable General Equilibrium)
Static and dynamic modeling of entire economies, often used for trade and tax policy.
Y = A \cdot [\alpha K^\rho + (1-\alpha) L^\rho]^{1/\rho} Programming in GAMS to solve complex market equilibria.
Rolling Regressions
Estimating the same model on sliding time windows to expose parameter instability.
\hat{\beta}_{[t-w+1,\,t]} = \arg\min_{\beta} \sum_{s=t-w+1}^{t} \left(WS_{is} - \beta G_{i,s-1} - Z_{i,s-1}'\gamma - \delta_i - \gamma_s\right)^2 Used in the welfare state seminar to show that the globalization coefficient changes sign around the financial crisis.
Try Live